Our prediction
We are backing Lazio 2-1 Parma. Lazio are second, unbeaten and have dropped points only once in six league games, while Parma sit 18th with four points and one goal in three away trips in this run. The gap in form is too wide to ignore, even if Parma have a habit of scoring at the Olimpico.
Form guide
Lazio have taken 16 points from a possible 18, scoring 11 and conceding 4. Their last five read:
- Lazio 1-0 Genoa
- Udinese 1-2 Lazio
- Lazio 2-2 Milan
- Venezia FC 0-2 Lazio
- Lazio 3-1 Monza
This is a side that wins in different ways. They ground out a 1-0 at home, came from the road with wins at Udinese and Venezia FC, and held their own against Milan. The most recent result, a 3-1 over Monza, was their biggest scoring day of the season, which suggests the attack is warming up rather than fading. They have also conceded more than once in a game only twice, so they rarely let opponents settle.
Parma are in trouble early. Four points from six games, four goals scored and ten conceded. Their last five:
- Juventus 2-0 Parma
- Parma 1-1 Monza
- Como 1907 2-1 Parma
- Parma 2-1 Genoa
- Inter 3-0 Parma
The pattern is clear. At home they have been competitive, with a draw against Monza and a win over Genoa. Away from home they have lost every game in this run, scoring once in three trips and shipping seven goals. Against the stronger sides, Juventus and Inter, they did not score at all.
Head-to-head
This is where Parma find some encouragement. The last five meetings:
- Lazio 1-1 Parma (April 2026)
- Parma 0-1 Lazio (December 2025)
- Lazio 2-2 Parma (April 2025)
- Parma 3-1 Lazio (December 2024)
- Lazio 1-0 Parma (May 2021)
Lazio have not beaten Parma at home since 2021, with the last two visits to Rome both ending level. Parma have also scored in three of the last four meetings. That record is the main reason we expect Parma to find the net, but it comes from different circumstances: Parma arrive this time near the bottom while Lazio are near the top.
Team news
Team news as of 24 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Tuttosport, Corriere dello Sport, Tuttomercatoweb, Gazzetta di Parma). Lazio (head coach Gennaro Gattuso): Absentees: Albert Gudmundsson is out with a shoulder injury. Club doctor Pietro Monachino said the fracture is healing well, but Il Messaggero expects him to remain out at least until the start of December. Nicolò Rovella and Adam Marusic are still recovering. Sky Sport lists them as still doubtful, and Il Messaggero believes they will miss Saturday’s home fixture against Parma. Alessio Furlanetto is also listed as unavailable. Matteo Cancellieri is back. According to Corriere dello Sport, he has returned to full training with the group and will certainly be in the squad. Nobody is suspended and nobody is one booking from a ban. Lazio had not yet officially announced their squad list. Doubts: Sutalo is competing with Doekhi, and Noslin with Pinamonti, with Noslin still ahead. Kenneth Taylor needs monitoring after he came off the pitch hurt in Turin, and he is in a straight fight with Dele-Bashiru. Sky says Gattuso is also considering a little rotation, with Dele-Bashiru, Pinamonti and Cataldi possible starters. Expected formation (4-3-3): Mandas; Sutalo, Provstgaard, Floriani, Nuno Tavares; Frattesi, Taylor, Belahyane; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni. This is the same XI that won 3-0 at Juventus.
Parma (head coach Alberto Gilardino, who replaced Carlos Cuesta earlier this season; the club have already changed coach): Absentees: Gilardino named 24 players. Valenti is left out because he is not in the first-team squad, and Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist and Elphege are injured. Their injuries are a moderate tear in the right thigh (Nicolussi Caviglia), a muscle tear in the left calf (Almqvist) and acute appendicitis (Elphege). No suspensions have been reported. Doubts: Gilardino said he has several doubts, with competition in every position, including goalkeeper. Corvi is still expected to start ahead of Daffara. Outlets disagree on the line-up. Tuttomercatoweb says captain Delprato could move up to the right flank in place of Britschgi, with Ndiaye (favoured over Drobnic) replacing him on the left of the back three. The forward spot next to Romero is open: Touré could start again, but Frigan and Lontani are pushing for a chance. Several outlets instead expect Britschgi at right wing-back and Fabbian in midfield. Expected formation (3-5-2), per Tuttosport: Corvi; Ndiaye, Diego Carlos, Troilo; Valeri, Keita, Bernabé, Lontani, Delprato; Romero, Touré.
What decides it
Lazio’s home scoring against Parma’s away defence. Lazio have scored six in three home league games, and Parma have conceded seven in three away games. If that trend holds, Lazio should score at least twice.
Parma’s record in Rome. Draws of 1-1 and 2-2 in their last two visits show Parma can handle this fixture better than their league position suggests. An early Parma goal would make this far more uncomfortable for the home side.
Lazio’s ability to close games. Lazio have conceded only four times all season and have turned narrow leads into wins at Udinese and against Genoa. If they score first, Parma’s thin attack, four goals in six games, is unlikely to recover twice.
Verdict
Lazio are the better team on every measure of current form, and Parma’s away record is poor. The recent draws in Rome stop us predicting a comfortable afternoon, so we expect Parma to score once, but Lazio’s attack should have enough. Our call is Lazio 2-1 Parma.
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