AC Milan finally snapped a three-game Serie A losing streak with a dramatic 3-2 comeback win at Lecce last week. That victory, inspired by a Christian Pulisic brace, masked what has been a crisis period for the Rossoneri. They had lost 2-1 three times in a row (to Torino, Bologna and Lazio) and conceded 2+ goals in four straight league games. Milan sit 9th and can’t afford further slips. Como, by contrast, have been punching above their weight. The newly-promoted Larians have lost only one of their last six league matches (2W, 3D). They drew 1-1 with Venezia in the previous round (conceding a 95′ penalty) and before that held Roma 0-0. Como’s solid run has lifted them to 13th, seven points clear of the drop. Momentum favors the visitors, whereas Milan have been inconsistent.
Milan’s injury list is mercifully short now. Only right-back Emerson Royal is unavailable (expected back Matchday 32). Long-term absentees like Bennacer and Kalulu have returned. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan and defender Strahinja Pavlović are back from suspensions. Como have a few concerns: veteran Sergi Roberto and striker Iván Azón are both doubts with knocks. Center-back Marco Barba and left-back Federico Sala have also been nursing injuries – Sala missed last week’s game. However, coach Cesc Fàbregas is expected to have Marc-Oliver Kempf fit after suspension and Nico Paz (their young star) back from a minor injury scare. No players are suspended for this clash.
These clubs haven’t met in Serie A in over two decades. Milan are unbeaten in their last 11 Serie A matches against Como (6W, 5D), with Como’s last top-flight win over Milan coming in January 1985. Earlier this season, Milan narrowly beat Como 2-1 away at the Stadio Sinigaglia – a match where Nico Paz and Rafael Leão both scored. Historically, Milan have dominated: in 32 competitive meetings, Milan have 17 wins to Como’s 5. Fans will recall the last San Siro encounter back in May 2003, when Milan won 2-0 with goals from Filippo Inzaghi and Alessandro Nesta. Como’s trips to the San Siro have typically ended in frustration (they have failed to score in their last five visits here in Serie A). The historical odds are stacked against the visitors, but this is a very different Como side.
Milan’s coach Sérgio Conceição is under fire. The Lecce win may have saved his job for now, but he’s keenly aware that “no further setbacks can be afforded.” This will be Conceição’s first time facing Como as a manager. Como’s player-turned-manager Cesc Fàbregas is relishing the chance to outwit a giant. He’s already met Milan once – in the reverse fixture – and gave them a scare in that 1-2 loss. Fàbregas the player had plenty of battles with Milan (notably scoring against them in the Champions League for Arsenal), and he’s instilled a fearless mindset in his team. Head-to-head, Conceição and Fàbregas have no prior duels. Tactically, Conceição has struggled to find balance (Milan have conceded 2 goals in each of their last 4 league games), whereas Fàbregas has Como well-organized. It’s an intriguing clash of a seasoned coach versus a rookie manager on the rise.
Despite Milan’s struggles, bookmakers still favor the Rossoneri at home. Milan are around 1.80 to win (odds-on). A draw is priced roughly at 3.65–3.75, and a Como upset win is about 4.2–4.5. The odds imply ~55% chance of Milan victory. Punters expect goals: Over 2.5 goals is around 1.85, and Both Teams to Score “Yes” about 1.75, reflecting Milan’s leaky defense and Como’s recent scoring form. Interestingly, Como have kept two clean sheets in a row, so “Milan to score Under 1.5 goals” could be a value bet. Still, the expected result by the odds is a narrow Milan win, perhaps 2-1. Milan’s pedigree at San Siro and desperation for points make them favorites, but the odds aren’t as one-sided as one might think for a newly-promoted opponent.
Milan are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 (which can morph into 4-3-3). Mike Maignan returns in goal as the steady presence. In defense, Kyle Walker will start at right-back, Malick Thiaw and Matteo Gabbia are tipped to pair at center-back, and captain Theo Hernández at left-back. (Pavlović is available but Gabbia has been in good form.) In midfield, Conceição has been considering a flat three, but most sources expect a double pivot of Youssouf Fofana and Marco Bondo – the 19-year-old Bondo impressed last week and is favored over Yunus Musah for the start. The attacking trio behind the striker should be Christian Pulisic (right wing), Tijjani Reijnders as a central attacking mid, and Rafael Leão back in the XI on the left wing. Leão is set to make his 250th Milan appearance and will be key. Up front, with Olivier Giroud gone, Santiago Giménez will lead the line – he’s “confermato unica punta” after scoring in consecutive matches. Milan surprisingly dropped Joao Félix recently, and it looks like he’ll be on the bench again as an impact sub. On Como’s side, Cesc Fàbregas has favored a 4-3-2-1 formation, a compact shape. Goalkeeper Jean Butez has been excellent and will start between the sticks. The back four sees Stefano Smolčić at right-back, Alberto Dossena and Marc-Oliver Kempf (returning from suspension) in central defense, and Matías Viña Valle at left-back. In midfield, Como field a hardworking trio: new signing Maxence Caqueret as the deep-lying playmaker, flanked by Máximo Perrone and Pedro Da Cunha (both on loan from big clubs). These three will look to congest the center and frustrate Milan. Ahead of them, Como’s key creative talent Nico Paz operates as a roaming attacking midfielder. He’ll be joined by Gabriel Strefezza slightly to the right – Strefezza drifts in from the wing – and Assan Diao as the most advanced forward. (Some sources list this as a 4-3-3 with Diao central and Paz/Strefezza wide, but in practice it’s a Christmas-tree shape.) Notably, Patrick Cutrone (the ex-Milan striker) has been relegated to the bench by Diao’s emergence, and on-loan talent Dele Alli is also usually among the substitutes. Como’s tactic will be a low block, relying on Paz’s dribbling and Diao’s pace on counters. Milan, by contrast, will push their fullbacks high and try to pin Como back. We might see Conceição instruct Hernandez to overlap Leão constantly to overwhelm Como’s right side.
The San Siro is set for a near sell-out despite Milan’s troubles. Rossoneri fans are standing by their team – over 74,000 spectators are expected at San Siro for this match. In fact, reports confirm it’s effectively sold out. Milan supporters are passionate and are sending a message of encouragement in this delicate moment. Como will have a small section of away fans (perhaps ~2,000 Lariani making the short trip within Lombardy), but they’ll be drowned out by the sea of red and black. This fixture also pushes Milan above the 1 million total season attendance mark at home, underlining fan loyalty. Weather in Milan is fine for an evening game, and the atmosphere under the San Siro lights should be electric. Milan’s curva sud will unveil their banners as usual, and even against a smaller club, the buzz will be that of a big occasion given Milan’s urgent need to win.
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