Our prediction
Torino 2-1 Monza. Monza have conceded 15 goals in six league games, the leakiest record in this fixture by a distance, and Torino have enough going forward to take advantage at home. Monza score often enough to make it close, but they keep giving goals away.
Form guide
Torino sit 12th with 7 points from six games (W2 D1 L3, goals 7-9). Their last five results show a side that is hard to beat by much but short of cutting edge. They lost Sassuolo 2-1 Torino and then won Fiorentina 1-2 Torino, a useful away result. Their worst afternoon came at home: Torino 0-2 Roma, a reminder that they struggle against stronger opposition. They followed that with a solid Bologna 1-1 Torino and, most recently, Torino 2-1 Udinese. Across those five games they never conceded more than twice, and three times they conceded only once. That defensive floor is the base of this prediction.
Monza are 16th with 4 points (W1 D1 L4, goals 9-15). The pattern in their recent results is clear: they score, but they concede more. They lost Monza 2-3 Udinese at home, drew Parma 1-1 Monza, then lost Lecce 3-2 Monza after scoring twice away from home. Their only win came in Monza 2-1 Sassuolo, and their latest outing was a heavy Lazio 3-1 Monza. They have scored in all five of those matches, which keeps them dangerous, but they have also conceded in every one of them, three goals on three occasions. Away from home in that run they took one point from three games.
Head-to-head
This fixture has belonged to Torino recently, though usually by narrow margins. Torino are unbeaten in the last five meetings, with two wins and three draws:
- Monza 0-2 Torino (March 2025)
- Torino 1-1 Monza (November 2024)
- Torino 1-0 Monza (March 2024)
- Monza 1-1 Torino (November 2023)
- Torino 1-1 Monza (May 2023)
Monza have not scored more than once in any of those games, and the meetings have been low scoring overall. The three draws are worth noting, but the two most recent decisive results both went Torino’s way, and Monza’s current defensive numbers are worse than in those seasons.
Team news
Torino: Team news as of 23 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Toro.it, Il Giorno, FantaMaster). Official line-ups had not been released at the time of writing. Ignazio Abate will be without Ricardo Rodriguez, Niccolò Fortini and Emirhan Ilkhan, all recovering from injuries. Rodriguez has a tendon injury in his left thigh and may be out for the next fortnight, and Ilkhan and Fortini both have adductor problems. There are no suspensions. The one doubt is in midfield, where Bragança could be rested after heavy recent use, with Gineitis or Fitz-Jim possible replacements. Comert is on the bench and could come on as the only left-footed defender available. Sky expects the team that won at Parma to start in a 3-5-2: Perri; Coco, Ismajli, Comuzzo; Belghali, Vlasic, Mandragora, Braganca, Cacciamani; Adams, Simeone. Several local outlets name the same eleven but list it as a 4-4-2.
Monza: Ivan Juric is without Pessina (kneecap lesion), Touré (knee) and Ziolkowski (plantar fascia), while Ciurria needs to be assessed for a physical problem. Lucchesi is back from suspension and returns to the defence. Sources disagree on several places. Sky’s predicted 3-4-2-1 is Tornqvist; Kouadio, Goglichidze, Lucchesi; Birindelli, F. Ondoa, Folorunsho, Bakoune; Cutrone, Robinson; Varela. Sky’s own report also has Goglichidze ahead of Carboni, but it is inconsistent on the Akinsanmiro or Foe Ondoa choice in midfield. Il Giorno says Bakoune wants a place on the flanks, and Cutrone, Dany Mota and Robinson are competing for the two spots behind Varela. FantaMaster instead expects Birindelli, Akinsanmiro, Ondoa and Mangas in midfield, with Robinson and Mota ahead of Ngonge and Cutrone behind Varela.
What decides it
Monza’s back line under pressure. Conceding 15 in six games is an average of 2.5 per match. Torino are not a high-scoring side, with 7 goals so far, but they have scored in four of their last five and found two goals in each of their two most recent wins. Against this defence, two looks achievable.
Torino’s ability to limit damage. Torino have conceded 9 in six games and never more than two in their last five. Monza will probably score, as they have in every recent match, but Torino’s record suggests they keep it to one. The head-to-head supports that: Monza have not scored twice against Torino in their last five meetings.
Monza’s away form. One point from their last three away games, with seven goals conceded across them, is a poor platform for a trip to Turin. Their one win in that run came at home.
Verdict
Torino are the more stable side, they have the better recent record in this fixture, and Monza’s defence has given up at least one goal in every recent game. The draw history keeps us from going higher, but we expect the hosts to edge it: Torino 2-1 Monza, with Medium confidence.
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