Our prediction
We are calling it Atalanta 2-0 Venezia FC. Atalanta arrive on a three-game losing run, but Venezia have lost all five league games and conceded at least two goals in every one of them. That defensive record is the single biggest reason to back the home side.
Form guide
Atalanta’s season has two halves. They opened with consecutive home wins, Atalanta 2-1 Sassuolo and Atalanta 1-0 Bologna, then lost three in a row: Roma 2-1 Atalanta, Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari and Juventus 2-0 Atalanta. The defeats in Rome and Turin are understandable. The home loss to Cagliari is the real concern, because it was the one game in that run they would have expected to win.
The bigger issue is output. Atalanta have scored five goals in five matches and have never managed more than two in a game. They sit 11th on six points with a goal difference of minus two. This is not a side currently blowing teams away, which is why we expect a controlled win rather than a rout.
Venezia FC are bottom with no points, four goals scored and 13 conceded. The sequence reads Venezia FC 0-2 Lecce, Milan 2-0 Venezia FC, Frosinone 3-2 Venezia FC, Venezia FC 2-4 Fiorentina and Venezia FC 0-2 Lazio. They failed to score in three of those five games. When they did find the net, in the defeats to Frosinone and Fiorentina, the matches were open and they still conceded three and four. Whatever shape they play, they have not yet found a way to keep a game tight.
Head-to-head
Atalanta are unbeaten in the four meetings listed, with three wins and a draw. The results: Atalanta 4-0 Venezia FC in November 2021, Venezia FC 1-3 Atalanta in April 2022, Venezia FC 0-2 Atalanta in October 2024 and Atalanta 0-0 Venezia FC in March 2025. That is nine goals for Atalanta and one for Venezia across the four games.
One note of caution: the most recent meeting in Bergamo ended goalless. Venezia have shown they can frustrate Atalanta at this ground, even if the overall pattern clearly favours the home side.
Team news
Team news as of 12 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Corriere dello Sport, Tuttosport, Venezia FC official site; TuttoMercatoWeb and SOS Fanta used to confirm). Atalanta (head coach Maurizio Sarri) absentees: with Raspadori back, there are four Atalanta absentees: Pompei, Sulemana, Kossounou and Hien. No suspensions. Doubts: Giacomo Raspadori is in the squad despite a right hamstring strain picked up with Italy, but he is expected to start on the bench. Sarri is still undecided between switching from 4-3-3 to 4-2-3-1 after three straight defeats. The main doubt is at centre forward, with Gianluca Scamacca ahead of Nikola Krstović. On the left, Lorenzo Bernasconi starts slightly ahead of Sead Kolašinac. Gaetano, Samardžić, Elmas and Zalewski are competing for the remaining midfield or attacking place. Expected formation and XI: Corriere dello Sport expects 4-3-3: Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Kristensen, Scalvini, Bernasconi; Kessie, Gaetano, Ederson; De Ketelaere, Scamacca, Rowe. Sky Sport Italia’s alternative is 4-2-3-1: Carnesecchi; Bellanova, Scalvini, Kristensen, Bernasconi; Kessié, Ederson; Zalewski, De Ketelaere, Rowe; Scamacca.
Venezia (head coach Giovanni Stroppa, kept on despite five defeats in the first five Serie A games of 2026/27) absentees: the official 28 man squad is out. Haps is also back, while Mazzocchi, Bella-Kotchap, Busio and the long-term absentees Adorante, Sverko and Franjic are out. No suspensions have been reported. Returning: Basic, Schingtienne and Dagasso are back. Sky Sport Italia had reported Basic still struggling with plantar fasciitis, but he has been named in the squad. Doubts: Helgason or Basic in midfield, Halhal or Schingtienne in the back three, and on the left flank Correia, who is still being challenged by Sagrado. Expected formation and XI: Sky Sport Italia’s line up included Bella-Kotchap, who is not in the squad, so it is out of date. Corriere dello Sport expects 3-5-2: Stankovic; Halhal, Moreno, Juan Jesus; Hainaut, Kike Pérez, Sohm, Helgason, Sagrado; Yeboah, A. Adams.
What decides it
- Atalanta’s finishing against a leaky defence. Atalanta have averaged one goal per game, Venezia have conceded 2.6 per game. Something has to give, and the weight of Venezia’s record suggests Atalanta will find at least two.
- The first goal. Venezia have not taken a single point from any position this season. If Atalanta score first, history says Venezia lack the defensive resilience to stay in the game, and Atalanta can manage the rest.
- Keeping it tight at the back. Venezia only scored in games that became open. Atalanta conceded twice at home to Cagliari, so a clean sheet is not guaranteed, but if they avoid turning this into a back and forth contest, Venezia’s attack has shown little on its own.
Verdict
Atalanta’s slump is real, but this is the right opponent to end it against: a Venezia side with no points, the worst defensive record in the division and one goal in four meetings with Atalanta. We expect patience rather than fireworks from the home side and a deserved win. Our call is Atalanta 2-0 Venezia FC.
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