Our prediction
We are calling Inter 2-1 Shaktar. Inter are top of Serie A and score freely, with 18 goals in six league games, and that attacking output should be enough at home against a side that has historically made them work for every chance. The concern is at the other end, where Inter keep conceding, so we expect Shaktar to score but not to take anything home.
Form guide
Inter’s domestic numbers are excellent: five wins and a draw from six Serie A games, 16 points and no defeats. Their European record is the opposite. They lost Real Madrid 2-1 Inter on matchday one and then lost Inter 3-4 Club Brugge last week, which leaves them without a point after two games and under real pressure to win this one.
The pattern across their last five matches is clear. Inter scored 14 goals but conceded 11. Inter 5-3 Udinese and Roma 2-2 Inter both showed a team that attacks well and defends loosely, and the defeat to Club Brugge confirmed it. Inter 3-0 Parma is the only clean sheet in that run. This is a team that will create chances, but it rarely controls a game without the opponent getting a look at goal.
Shaktar’s form is harder to read. The only result in our data is PSV 1-1 Shaktar on matchday one, a solid away draw that shows they can stay organised and take something from a difficult trip. We do not have enough evidence to judge their current level beyond that, which is a reason not to overstate our confidence either way.
Head-to-head
These two have met four times, and the defining feature is how few goals there have been:
- Inter 2-0 Shaktar (November 2021)
- Shaktar 0-0 Inter (September 2021)
- Inter 0-0 Shaktar (December 2020)
- Shaktar 0-0 Inter (October 2020)
Three goalless draws and one Inter win. Shaktar have never scored against Inter in these meetings, and Inter have only broken them down once. That history is several seasons old, so it says more about Shaktar’s typical approach against Inter than about the current squads, but it does suggest a cautious, compact opponent rather than an open game.
Team news
Inter: Team news as of 21 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Gazzetta dello Sport, Sport Mediaset, Calciomercato.com, Shakhtar press office). Cristian Chivu remains in charge. Inter completed their final preparations with a morning training session at the Inter Training Center, led by head coach Cristian Chivu and his staff. Absentees: Jones, Stones, Pavard and, above all, captain Lautaro remain out. Lautaro has a muscle problem in the flexors of his left thigh, and he is expected back only after the November international break. Doubts: The goalkeeper choice is still open. Sky expects Josep Martinez to keep his place, with Provedel again on the bench, but the Gazzetta says Chivu will decide only at the last minute whether to start Provedel or stick with Josep Martinez. In defence Chivu is considering Bastoni in the centre with Akanji and Carlos Augusto either side. If not, he could keep the usual trio of Bisseck, Akanji and Bastoni, with Carlos Augusto replacing Dimarco at left wing back. Calhanoglu comes back into midfield after being left out of the starting XI in the win at Bologna, and Mkhitaryan is ahead of Zielinski. Up front, Sky, the Gazzetta and Mediaset all expect Bonny to start ahead of Pio Esposito. According to the Gazzetta, it would be his first start of the season, alongside Marcus Thuram. Expected formation (3-5-2, Sky Sport Italia): Josep Martinez; Akanji, Bastoni, Carlos Augusto; Diouf, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Bonny.
Shakhtar Donetsk: Arda Turan is the head coach. Absentees: Marlon, Irakli Azarov and Eguinaldo are injured and will miss the game. Turan told the club’s press office that only Marlon Santos and Azarov were not with the squad, and that he would miss Eguinaldo, who would have played if he had been available. Several regular starters were rested in the recent game against FC Kolos, including Pedrinho, Matviyenko and Pedro Henrique. Doubts: The XIs published for the Shakhtar midfield and left flank are not the same. Sky picks Nazaryna, while Calciomercato.com picks Marlon Gomes and Newertton. Gleiker Mendoza is also pushing for a place. Expected formation (4-1-4-1, Calciomercato.com): Riznyk; Vinícius Tobias, Bondar, Matviyenko, Pedro Henrique; Ocheretko; Santana, Pedrinho, Marlon Gomes, Newertton; Kauã Elias. Sky Sport Italia uses the same 4-1-4-1 with Nazaryna in place of Marlon Gomes.
What decides it
Inter’s attack against a low block. Inter have averaged three goals a game in Serie A, but the head-to-head shows Shaktar are capable of shutting them out. If Inter score early, the game opens up and their quality should tell. If it stays goalless past the hour, the old pattern of frustration could return.
Inter’s defending. Eleven goals conceded in five matches is the biggest threat to this prediction. Shaktar did not need many chances to draw at PSV, and an Inter defence that let in four at home to Club Brugge cannot assume a quiet night.
The European table. With no points from two games, Inter need a home win more than Shaktar do. That should push Inter forward from the start, which increases their scoring chances but also leaves space behind for Shaktar to counter.
Verdict
Inter’s domestic form and home advantage make them the clear favourites, and their need for points should drive them on. Their defensive record means a clean sheet is unlikely, so we expect Shaktar to score, but Inter have the firepower to win it. Our prediction: Inter 2-1 Shaktar.
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