Our prediction
We are calling Como 1907 2-1 Man United. The single biggest reason is the gap in attacking output: Como have scored freely in front of their own fans, while Man United have managed only two goals in their last four matches against serious opposition.
Form guide
Como 1907 sit 7th in Serie A with 11 points from six games (W3 D2 L1), scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their run opened with real authority: Genoa 1-4 Como 1907 away, then Como 1907 4-1 RB Leipzig in the Champions League, a result that tells you this side can hurt good European opposition at home. Como 1907 2-1 Parma kept the momentum going.
The last two results are quieter. Frosinone 2-0 Como 1907 was a poor afternoon against a side they would expect to beat, and Como 1907 0-0 Roma, while a respectable point, means they have now gone two matches without scoring. The question is whether that is a blip or a trend. Five goals across their last three home games, including four against Leipzig, suggests the home attack is still the stronger signal.
Man United arrive with one win in five, and that win came against the weakest opponent on the list: Man United 4-0 Sabah FK. Strip that out and the picture is thin. Man United 0-1 Man City, Fulham 1-1 Man United, Man United 1-1 Tottenham and Atleti 2-0 Man United add up to two goals scored and five conceded in four games. They are hard enough to beat by a wide margin, but they are not creating enough to control matches, and their only previous away trip in this competition ended without a goal.
Head-to-head
There is no head-to-head record between these clubs in our data, so this is a first meeting as far as the numbers go. That puts more weight on current form and on where the match is played, and both of those lean towards Como.
Team news
Team news as of 21 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Sky Sports, GianlucaDiMarzio.com, Tuttosport). Como 1907 (coach Cesc Fàbregas) are short of attackers. Kean, Diao and Rodriguez are out injured, and Rodríguez, as announced by Fàbregas, will be out for at least two months. Chalobah is also out, and Ramón could replace him in defence. In midfield, Perrone returns to the starting line-up in place of Milla. Fàbregas has two selection doubts, Valle or Kaiki and Smolcic or Liberali, with Couto possibly dropping back to full-back. In goal, Fàbregas confirmed that Douvikas will start but would not name his goalkeeper. Sky picks Butez, while Tuttosport picks Sanchez. Expected formation 4-2-3-1, per Sky Sport Italia: Butez; Smolcic, Ramón, Kempf, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Couto, Nico Paz, Baturina; Douvikas. Official line-ups are not out yet.
Manchester United (coach Michael Carrick, under pressure but still in charge) have nine first-team players unavailable through injury, illness and suspension. Leny Yoro is suspended. Lisandro Martinez and Marcus Rashford missed training on Tuesday, and Rashford is managing a hip issue. Kobbie Mainoo is around 10 days away from returning, while Luke Shaw is expected to be out for longer. Ayden Heaven is also ill, with Manuel Ugarte (knee), Patrick Dorgu (hamstring) and Benjamin Sesko (shin) longer-term absentees. The main doubt is Baleba. If he starts, Tielemans would move up to the number 10 role and Bruno Fernandes would shift out wide. Expected formation 4-2-3-1, per Sky Sport Italia: Lammens; Dalot, Mazraoui, Maguire, Amass; Tielemans, Andrey Santos; Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha; Mbeumo. Official line-ups are not out yet.
What decides it
- Como’s home attack against a stalling United front line. Como put four past Leipzig in this stadium and two past Parma. Man United, outside the Sabah game, have not scored more than once in a match in this sample. If Como score first, United have shown little sign they can respond with more than a single goal.
- Can Como end their scoring drought? Blanks against Frosinone and Roma are the main argument against them. A Man United defence that conceded twice at Atleti and lost at home to Man City is not impenetrable, and the Leipzig result shows Como raise their level on European nights.
- United’s habit of staying close. Two draws and two one-goal margins in their last four Premier League and Champions League games against strong sides tell us United rarely collapse. That is why we expect a narrow game rather than a repeat of the Leipzig scoreline, and why a United goal is likely even in defeat.
Verdict
Como have the better recent results, the home advantage and a proven European night already behind them this season, while Man United are short of goals away from the easiest fixtures. United’s resilience keeps it tight, and the two-game blank for Como keeps our confidence low, but the evidence points one way. Our prediction: Como 1907 2-1 Man United.
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