Five matchdays into Serie A 2026/27, Roma are the real leaders. Roma, Inter and Lazio all sit on 13 points, but Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have the best goal difference in the league (+11), the best expected goal difference (+8.21 on WhoScored data) and have faced only 46 shots in five games. Inter are close behind on every measure. Lazio are level on points and nowhere near on performance.
The Stadio Olimpico gave us the whole story in one evening. On Saturday 19 September 2026, Roma and Inter drew 2-2, with Manu Koné scoring twice for Roma and Lautaro Martínez twice for Inter. The same day, Lazio won 2-0 in Venice to make it a three-way tie, with both sides of the Derby della Capitale level at the top. Same points, three very different teams. I used the break to go through the numbers, and this is how I see it.
Why are Roma the real leaders?
Start with the scorelines. Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 on 24 August, won 4-0 at Lecce on 31 August, beat Atalanta 2-1 on 5 September, won 2-0 in Turin on 14 September and drew with Inter. That is 14 goals scored and 3 conceded.
The underlying numbers back up every one of those results. Roma have produced 14.66 expected goals and allowed 6.45, the best expected goal difference in the division. They take 20.6 shots per game and allow only 9.2. Twelve of their 14 goals came from open play, the most in the league, so this team creates its own chances.
What makes Roma different, for me, is where they win the ball. They lead Serie A with 13.8 interceptions per game, and 34% of their touches come in the opposition third, the joint-highest share in the league with Juventus. Away from home they go even harder: 27 tackles per game on the road, more than anyone else, and only 7.5 shots conceded. Roma defend by attacking the ball high up the pitch. It is the same pressing model Gasperini built at Atalanta.
Up front, Donyell Malen leads the scoring charts with 6 goals. Roma have scored 14 from 14.66 xG, so the finishing matches the chances. Nothing here is borrowed from luck.
Are Inter’s eight goals conceded a problem?
Inter are a genuine co-leader, and in attack they are the best side in the league. They have scored 15 goals, more than anyone, from 14.68 expected goals, also the league’s highest. They hold 63.2% of the ball, put 7.4 shots on target per game and have scored 4 goals from set pieces, level with Lecce for the most.
The problem is at the other end. Inter have conceded 8 goals: one against Monza, two against Napoli, three against Udinese and two at the Stadio Olimpico. Their expected goals against sits at 7.09, so this is a real trend. Cristian Chivu’s side are giving up roughly what the chances deserve, and that is too much for a team defending the Scudetto. Roma have allowed 6.45 xG and Juventus just 2.68.
There is also a home and away split to watch. At San Siro, Inter scored 12 goals from 8.41 xG. Away from home they scored 3 from 6.27. The chances are coming on the road. The finishing will follow, and the comeback in Rome, with Lautaro scoring twice, showed what happens when it clicks.
How did Lazio get to 13 points?
Lazio’s run reads well: 1-0 at Bologna on 24 August, 1-0 against Genoa on 30 August, 2-1 at Udinese on 7 September, 2-2 against Milan on 12 September and 2-0 at Venezia on 19 September. Four wins, one draw, three goals conceded.
Look underneath and the picture changes. Lazio have 8.32 expected goals, only the tenth-best figure in the league, from 12.8 shots per game. They have allowed 7.53 expected goals and conceded just 3. Their goalkeepers have saved 87.0% of the shots on target they faced, according to FBref, against a league average of roughly 70%. Their expected goal difference of +0.79 ranks ninth in Serie A.
The win in Venice summed it up. Christos Mandas saved a penalty from John Yeboah before Mattia Zaccagni converted a penalty and Tijjani Noslin added the second. Great goalkeeping wins points, and those points belong to Lazio. A title challenge needs more than a save rate, though.
Gennaro Gattuso’s team has a clear shape: 46.9% possession, 44% of attacks down the left, the highest share in the league, and zero goals conceded from set pieces. They also win the fewest aerial duels in Serie A, 6.4 per game, which makes that set-piece record look fragile. Davide Frattesi has 3 goals from midfield. The fix is simple to name and hard to deliver. Lazio need more shots and better ones, because 3.8 shots on target per game will not keep them in the top three once the saves dry up.
Which of the three will still be up there in November?
On these numbers, Roma. They have the second-best attack by expected goals, the best defence of the three and a pressing game that travels. Inter will stay close, because 23.2 shots per game and Lautaro Martínez in form will win a lot of matches, but Chivu needs to fix the defending before the games against the top sides.
Lazio are the ones to watch. A table after five rounds tells you who has collected points. The underlying numbers tell you who will keep collecting them. Right now, the numbers favour Roma. My pick for the Scudetto is Inter, probably, with Roma the side that can surprise them.
For the other side of the table, read my piece on the teams the table is flattering.
