After five matchdays of Serie A 2026/27, the league table flatters Cagliari and Frosinone and badly undersells Bologna, Monza and Juventus. Rank the 20 clubs by expected goal difference, the gap between the quality of chances they create and the quality they allow, and Cagliari drop from 4th to 17th while Bologna climb from 18th to 7th. The international break is the right moment to separate the results from the performances.
Five games is a small sample, and that is exactly why the gap matters. Finishing and goalkeeping swing wildly over a handful of matches. The volume and quality of chances settle much faster. When the two disagree this early, I back the chances.
What does the expected goals table actually say?
On WhoScored’s data, the top of the expected goal difference table looks familiar: Roma (+8.21), Inter (+7.59) and then Juventus (+6.80), who sit seventh in the real table. Milan are fourth. After that it gets interesting. Monza, sixteenth in the table, are fifth. Bologna, 18th with two points, are seventh.
At the other end, Cagliari rank 17th at -3.44 and Frosinone 13th at -2.14. Lazio, level on points with the leaders, rank ninth, and Lazio’s case gets its own piece. This one is about the clubs furthest from where they belong.
Why are Cagliari fourth?
Fabio Pisacane’s side have 12 points from five games, and every one of their four wins came by a single goal: 1-0 at Parma on 22 August, 1-0 against Lecce on 7 September, 2-1 at Atalanta on 12 September and 1-0 at Udinese on 19 September. The only defeat was 1-0 at home to Inter.
That is a team that knows how to see out games. It is also a team facing a siege. Cagliari have conceded 102 shots, 20.4 per game, the second-highest total in Serie A. Those shots were worth 8.74 expected goals. Cagliari conceded two. Their goalkeeping has saved 90.5% of shots on target according to FBref, against a league average of roughly 70%, and Elia Caprile was the difference again in Udine.
The attack is honest but thin. Cagliari have 5 goals from 5.3 expected goals and take only 10.8 shots per game. Daniel Maldini has three of the five. The route to keeping this position is clear to me: Cagliari need to cut the number of shots they allow, because no goalkeeper saves nine in ten for a full season.
Can Frosinone keep this up?
The promoted side are sixth with 10 points, and half of the story is real. Massimiliano Alvini’s Frosinone have scored 9 goals from 8.88 expected goals, including 3-0 at Fiorentina on 29 August and 2-0 against Como on 20 September. Antonio Raimondo has four of them. This attack belongs in Serie A.
The defence is the other half. Frosinone have faced 104 shots, the most in the league, worth 11.02 expected goals, the third-highest figure behind Lecce and Venezia. They have conceded four. That gap of seven goals between what they should have conceded and what they did is the largest in the division. Expect the goals against to arrive, and expect Frosinone’s goal difference to shrink with them.
Why are Bologna 18th?
This is the position the table gets most wrong. Bologna have 2 points and have already changed coach, with Domenico Tedesco sacked on 16 September and Raffaele Palladino appointed. Yet Bologna’s expected goals against is 5.21, the second-lowest in Serie A behind Juventus. Their attack created 7.29 expected goals and scored 3. Away from home they have not scored at all.
All three of their defeats finished 1-0: at home to Lazio, at Atalanta and at Napoli. That is the profile of a team losing on finishing, with a sound structure. Palladino drew 1-1 with Torino on 19 September in his first game, and if Bologna’s finishing simply returns to normal, he will collect the points Tedesco’s team created. The lesson for the club is uncomfortable but useful: the real problem was the conversion rate.
Is Monza’s defence really that bad?
Ivan Jurić’s promoted Monza are 16th with 4 points and have conceded 12 goals, joint second-most in the league. On chances, they should have conceded around 7. Their expected goals against is 7.26, and the gap of almost five goals is the worst luck in the league.
Two things explain it. Seven of Monza’s 12 goals conceded came from set pieces, by far the most in Serie A. And their goalkeepers have saved only 50.0% of shots on target, the lowest rate in the division. At the other end, Monza have created 10.34 expected goals, the fourth-highest figure, and Gustavo Varela scored both goals in the 2-1 win over Sassuolo on 18 September, a result that eased the pressure on Jurić. Set-piece defending is the most coachable problem in football. Fix it and Monza climb.
Where do Juventus fit in?
Luciano Spalletti’s Juventus are seventh with 10 points, and they have the best defence in Serie A by a distance. They have faced 39 shots in five games, 7.8 per game, the fewest in the league, worth just 2.68 expected goals. The next-best side, Bologna, have allowed 5.21. Their only defeat was a 3-2 loss at Sassuolo on 13 September. On expected goal difference, only Roma and Inter are better.
Who else is in the wrong place?
Atalanta sit 11th but rank 19th on expected goal difference. Maurizio Sarri’s side, a long way from the Atalanta of the Gasperini years, have created 4.09 expected goals, the lowest in the league, and have lost three in a row to Roma, Cagliari and Juventus. They are closer to the relegation fight than the table suggests. Venezia, bottom with no points, have created 9.27 expected goals and scored only 4, and Christos Mandas saved a penalty against them on 19 September. They deserve more than zero. At 14th on expected goal difference, they do not deserve much more.
Tables after five matchdays reward whoever finished and saved best in August and September. The underlying numbers show who is building something. My advice is to trust the chances over the saves: Cagliari and Frosinone will come back to the pack, while Bologna, Monza and Juventus are heading up.
