Our prediction
Our call is Villarreal 1-1 Napoli. Villarreal have scored and conceded in every one of their last five matches. Napoli have become harder to beat over their last two league games, but they have not become any more dangerous in front of goal.
Form guide
Villarreal’s last five read: Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo, Dortmund 3-2 Villarreal, Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis, Málaga 1-3 Villarreal and Villarreal 3-1 Levante. That is two wins and three defeats, with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. The pattern is consistent. They found the net in all five games and never kept a clean sheet. Their home matches have been especially open: 12 goals in three games, six for and six against, and two of those three ended in defeat. The run did finish on an upswing, with back-to-back wins and three goals in each.
Napoli started this sequence badly: Napoli 1-2 Como 1907, Inter 3-2 Napoli and Napoli 0-1 Arsenal, three straight defeats. They then steadied with Napoli 1-0 Bologna and Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli, conceding just once across those two matches. They sit ninth in Serie A with 7 points from 5 games, 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. The concern is at the other end. Napoli have scored only twice in their last three matches and have not managed more than two goals in any of their last five.
Both sides lost on the opening matchday of the league phase, so both start this game without a point in the competition.
Head-to-head
There are no previous meetings between these clubs in our data, so recent form is the best guide. What the two runs suggest is a contrast in style: Villarreal play open, high-scoring games, while Napoli’s recent matches have been low on goals at both ends.
Team news
Team news as of 13 October 2026 (Sky Sport Italia, Corriere dello Sport, Il Mattino, Europa Press, FútbolFantasy). Villarreal (coach Iñigo Pérez) Absentees: Tajon Buchanan has a hamstring strain that already kept him out against Real Madrid, and forward Nicolas Pépé is out after eye surgery. Neither of them took part in Monday’s final training session, which youth players Nízar El Jmili and José Gaitán joined. No suspensions have been reported. Doubts: The line-up is not settled. Most previews say Pérez has still to decide whether Mikautadze, Ayoze Pérez or Tani Oluwaseyi starts up front. Spanish reports said Mouriño, Saliba, Carlos Romero and Mikautadze were pushing to replace Freeman, Navarro, Cardona and Ayoze Pérez. Ilias Akhomach is available after playing 67 minutes against Real Madrid, and Santi Comesaña is back in the group after a physical problem. Expected formation: 4-2-3-1. Probable XI (Corriere dello Sport): Gulácsi; Freeman, Foyth, Renato Veiga, Sergi Cardona; Gueye, Santi Comesaña; Akhomach, Ayoze, Alberto Moleiro; Gerard Moreno.
Napoli (coach Massimiliano Allegri) Absentees: Olivera, Favasuli, Buongiorno, Alisson Santos, Anguissa and Vergara are still out. Anguissa was not called up, and Giovane was added to the UEFA squad list in place of Favasuli. Allegri said Anguissa, Olivera and Alisson will return to group training on Wednesday. Because of the injuries, only 19 players were called up. No suspensions have been reported. Doubts: On McTominay, Allegri said he is feeling better and he will decide tomorrow whether to start him, but he thinks he will. Allegri also confirmed Milinkovic-Savic will play in goal, with Meret just back from injury. Gilmour is expected to beat Lobotka to a place in midfield. Corriere dello Sport expects a 3-5-2 with Giovane alongside Hojlund up front. Expected formation: 3-4-2-1 (Sky). Probable XI (Sky): Milinkovic-Savic; Rafa Marin, Rrahmani, Badiashile; Politano, Gilmour, McTominay, Di Lorenzo; Giovane, De Bruyne; Hojlund.
What decides it
- Villarreal’s attack against Napoli’s improved defence. Villarreal have scored in all five recent games, including three goals in each of their last two. Napoli have conceded just once in their last two. Something has to give, and we expect Villarreal to score at least once at home.
- Napoli’s finishing against a leaky home defence. Two goals in three matches is a thin return for Napoli. Still, Villarreal conceded in every game of this run, including three at home to Deportivo and two at home to Real Betis. That gives Napoli their best chance to end their scoring drought.
- The pressure of zero points. Both teams lost on matchday one. Napoli’s recent caution suggests they will settle for a point away from home. If they keep the game tight, Villarreal’s matches lose the open, end-to-end shape that has produced so many goals.
Verdict
Villarreal will create chances in front of their own crowd, but their defence has not kept a clean sheet in this run. Napoli look sturdier than they did a month ago, without the attacking edge to take full advantage. A goal each feels like the fairest reading of the evidence, and with no head-to-head history to lean on, we hold this call with low confidence: Villarreal 1-1 Napoli.
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